RevPAR, Seasonality and Honest Forecasting

Modelling short-let income without fooling yourself

Headline figures for serviced accommodation can look several times higher than an ordinary let, and only an honest forecast tells you what a particular property will really earn. This book teaches that skill. It cuts through the figures to the few that matter, including average daily rate, occupancy and revenue per available room, and shows where to find reliable local data for free. You will turn evidenced rates and occupancy into a revenue figure you can rely on, allow for seasonality, and build the full cost stack that separates short lets from ordinary buy-to-let. The forecast is then stress-tested for a bad month, a void and a rate rise, because businesses fail in the bad year their owner never modelled. A complete worked example runs from headline gross to honest net, and the final chapter sets out a step-by-step calculator and the legal questions it cannot answer. Next in this series: “Short-Let Rules: Planning, Licensing and Insurance”.

What’s inside

• The only numbers that actually matter
• Where to find reliable local data for free
• Working out true income, not optimistic income
• The full cost stack nobody mentions
• Stress-testing for the bad month, the void, the rate rise
• A complete worked example, start to finish
• Your deal calculator, and the legal questions it cannot answer

Educational material only, not financial, legal or tax advice. Results are not typical and are not a guarantee of income. Freedom Property Academy LTD, registered in England and Wales.